AGP Executive Report

Budget Anxiety: Bangladesh’s FY27 budget is already sparking fears of “tax traps,” with critics pointing to heavy reliance on indirect taxes like VAT and import duties that hit ordinary people hardest while tougher action on tax evasion and hidden wealth stays limited. Capital Market Push: Finance Minister Amir Khosru signals faster reforms—no political appointments in banks and regulators, plus deregulation in the next two months—aimed at restoring confidence after weak reporting and auditing. Banking & SME Support: Bangladesh Bank-backed programmes keep rolling: Midland Bank signed refinance deals for cluster and CMSME lending at 7% concessional rates, while Community Bank Bangladesh wrapped up an entrepreneurship course and Prime Bank approved 30% total dividends. Eid Readiness: Central bank directives focus on uninterrupted digital transactions and smooth payments during Eid holidays. Social Flashpoints: Dhaka also saw 32 arrests over alleged “flash procession” attempts tied to a banned political group, while child safety and canal pollution remain in sharp focus.

Local Polls Security: Bangladesh’s CEC says it wants violence-free local government elections and will run awareness campaigns, warning that past polls have been marred by clashes. Political Violence: In Khulna, two Juba Dal activists were shot inside a BNP office, with police investigating the attack after an argument turned into gunfire. Child Protection: SOS Children’s Villages Bangladesh and BSRM Steels signed an MoU to fund family-based alternative care for vulnerable children in Chattogram. Eid-Era Finance & Risk: A World Bank study flags Bangladesh’s state-owned enterprises as a major fiscal risk, costing the government about Tk 882 billion in a year. Diplomacy & Regional Ties: China’s diplomatic push is framed as an effort to shape a multipolar order, while Pakistan’s Bilawal calls for Karachi’s role in “Made in Pakistan” defence production. Cross-border Security Narrative: India’s Amit Shah pitches a tech “smart border” plan for Pakistan and Bangladesh frontiers, as the region debates tighter enforcement.

Housing & SDGs: At WUF13’s One UN Roundtable, UN agencies and partners pushed “integration” — linking housing with finance, climate action, mobility and basic services through stronger coordination and localization. Eid Readiness: Bangladesh Bank ordered banks, MFS and payment operators to keep ATMs, POS/QR, internet banking and e-payments running through Eid, with 2FA and fraud controls. Power Tariffs Under Fire: BERC’s retail tariff hike proposal (distribution costs Tk 0.85–2.05 per unit) drew backlash over capacity-charge burdens and system losses. Public Finance Stress: PRI warned weak ADP execution and record-low private credit growth are squeezing growth ahead of FY27; Fitch’s downgrade and high NPLs add pressure. SOE Fiscal Risk: A World Bank study says SOEs drained about Tk 882bn from the treasury in a year. Markets & Capital: BSEC fined three listed firms Tk 2.83cr and ran a women-only investment literacy workshop. Trade Watch: Pakistan’s neighbour trade gap widened, with Bangladesh among the weaker export links. Local Life: Sylhet’s cricket faces venue crunch as stadium access tightens.

Securities Crackdown: Bangladesh Securities and Exchange Commission (BSEC) fined directors and top officials of Khan Brothers PP Woven Bag Industries and Genex Infosys a total of Tk 1.5 crore for breaching securities rules, including false data in audited reports and dividend delays. Local Polls Watch: Chief Election Commissioner AMM Nasir Uddin warned that violence-free local government elections are hard but insisted the next polls must be held without bloodshed. Courtroom Setback for Yunus Probe: The High Court summarily dismissed a plea seeking an investigation into the 18-month Yunus-led interim government and its US trade agreement. Power Tariff Pressure: Stakeholders opposed proposed retail electricity price hikes at a BERC hearing, arguing costs should be cut and corruption tackled instead of passing burdens to consumers. Eid Logistics: Border Guard Bangladesh (BGB) will support law and order and traffic management across key Dhaka routes and highways during Eid-ul-Azha. Mango Exports: The government inaugurated mango exports as shipments reached 52.5 tonnes to 14 countries, with freight charges flagged as a key barrier to scaling up.

Power Tariff Clash: Bangladesh Power Development Board has proposed a 21% bulk electricity price hike, but consumer groups and business leaders say the move will punish households already hit by capacity charges and alleged inefficiency, with a public hearing drawing sharp backlash. Tax Reform Push: NBR Chairman Md Abdur Rahman Khan says the next budget should be more business-friendly, promising simpler tax rules and lower “unreasonable” burdens, while warning that manipulated financial reporting and underreporting still hurt revenue. WASH Funding Alarm: Civil society warns WASH allocations under the ADP have fallen 40% in three years, threatening SDG 6 progress and climate resilience. Measles Crisis: UNICEF says vaccine shortage was driven by procurement delays after 2024 process changes, as DGHS reports deaths and infections keep rising. Finance Pressure: Revenue collection is still short by Tk 1.04 lakh crore in July–April, while private sector credit growth hit a record low 4.72% in March. Diplomacy & Trade: Bangladesh and Morocco plan deeper cooperation and a possible free trade deal; US–Bangladesh ties also get fresh emphasis.

Corporate Transparency Crackdown: NBR chief Abdur Rahman Khan says Bangladesh’s biggest “red flag” is distorted sales/turnover in accounts—cash is often hidden or underreported—calling it a direct threat to revenue collection. Banking & Market Stress: Finance Minister Amir Khosru warns banks and the capital market are near the brink after years of plunder, money laundering and loan fraud, with regulators failing to stop it. Power Tariff Fight: BERC and consumer groups clash over a proposed bulk power price hike as CAB warns ordinary people will “die under this burden.” Rohingya Funding Gap: UN and partners renew a $710.5m appeal for Rohingyas and host communities, saying return hopes are fading. Human Stories, Real Costs: A measles case pushes a disabled father toward selling land for Tk 15,000 “immuno-booster” injections. Trade & Industry Moves: EU urges a more transparent, business-friendly trade setup; Bangladesh targets $5–$7bn jute exports; Bepza signs a $15m tent-products investment. New Enforcement: ACC sets Jul 27 for its stock-fraud probe report on Shakib and others. Mobility Update: Uber relaunches rides in Chattogram.

Forex Watch: Bangladesh Bank’s dollar-buying push stayed aggressive, snapping up $85m on Tuesday (after $100m Monday) to keep the exchange market stable; purchases in May now total $395m and $6.07bn so far in FY26. Digital Safety: Bangladesh Bank moves to curb fraud in card-to-MFS cash-ins, requiring a small Tk 500 token link-up before full access and tightening ownership rules from Aug 1. Women Online Violence: A national seminar says 63.51% of Bangladeshi women have faced online harassment/tech-facilitated gender-based violence. Labour Migration Shock: ILO data shows Nepal-to-GCC worker outflows fell 45–47% year-on-year, with West Asia conflict weighing on jobs and incomes. Energy & Industry Pressure: Steel makers warn against further power tariff hikes; garment firms still lag on renewable targets. Finance Governance: Draft BSEC corporate governance rules propose tighter independent-director limits and stronger regulator removal powers.

Bangladesh Bank Tightens Digital Money Rules: New BB guidelines require a first-time card-to-MFS link to be activated via a mandatory Tk 500 “token” transaction, with cards fully activated 24 hours later; from Aug 1, card and MFS account must match the same holder name, and “add money” must be shown as funds transfer not merchant payments. Currency Update: A redesigned Tk 5 note—light pink, signed by Finance Secretary Md Khairuzzaman Mozumder—enters circulation Tuesday under the theme Historical and Archaeological Architecture of Bangladesh. Forex Support: BB bought $100m from six banks in a single day at Tk 122.75, adding to May’s reserve-building push. Energy Cost Pressure: BERC hiked furnace oil by Tk 18.85/litre to Tk 113.54, while steel millers warn further power tariff hikes could force plant shutdowns. Trade & Industry: BYD launched three NEV models in Dhaka; Singapore eyes up to $1bn for the Chittagong Bay Terminal. Local Tensions: DSCC denied rumours about stray dog removal; jute workers blocked the Khulna-Jessore highway over raw jute export conditions and unpaid wages.

Eid-Economy Push: Bangladesh Bank and NBR are keeping money and trade moving during Eid-ul-Azha—BB orders banks to run limited hours on May 23-24 and selective operations on May 25-26 for garment wage payments, while NBR tells customs houses to stay on a limited scale from May 25-31 (except Eid day) to avoid port congestion. Credit Stress Watch: Fitch has shifted Bangladesh’s sovereign outlook from “stable” to “negative,” pointing to rising Middle East-linked risks for energy imports and remittances, even as the rating stays at B+. Apparel Sector Move: BGMEA and Mount Elizabeth Hospital launched a “Privilege Card” for apparel exporters and families, aiming to cut delays and speed access to VIP care. Market Disruption: A fire at Bijoy Sarani’s Kalmilata Bazar was brought under control after nearly two hours, with no casualties reported. Viral Culture: Ahead of Eid, two buffaloes nicknamed “Donald Trump” and “Benjamin Netanyahu” have gone viral, drawing crowds and selfies. Finance Innovation: DSE and BRAC EPL launched the “Sajida Orange Zero Coupon Bond” via the DSE electronic subscription system, targeting inclusive finance and women’s empowerment.

World Bank Energy Push: The World Bank approved an additional $350m for Bangladesh’s LNG-based energy security, aimed at easing fuel import pressure and stabilising electricity and industry amid Middle East-linked volatility. Eid Banking Logistics: Bangladesh Bank set the Eid-ul-Azha schedule: banks open May 23-24, then closed May 25-31, with limited operations on May 25-26 in key garment and trade hubs to keep wages and import-export moving. Governance & Oversight: The ACC seized BSEC documents in a Tk 2.57bn stock manipulation case involving Shakib Al Hasan and 14 others, while Bangladesh Bank reconstituted the board of ICB Islamic Bank with three independent directors. Big Budget Signal: NEC approved a Tk 3 lakh crore FY27 ADP, framed as reform-led recovery and infrastructure push. Trade & Regional Links: New Zealand signalled continued cooperation and post-LDC duty-free access; India’s April merchandise deficit widened to $28.4bn. Transport Plan: Planners urged fast rollout of a basic Dhaka–Gazipur BRT on dedicated lanes, saying most work is already done.

Markets Turn Risk-Off: Dhaka stocks slid back into the red as persistent selling erased a brief recovery; the DSEX fell to 5,226 and turnover dropped to Tk 8.7bn. SME Push in Capital Market: DSE and Swisscontact signed an MoU to boost SME participation with capacity building, governance support and compliance help. Tax Net Widens: NBR is weighing advance income tax on motorcycles and battery-run rickshaws in the 2026-27 budget, with exemptions for smaller bikes. Leather Sector Plan: Industries Minister Khandakar Abdul Muktadir said the government will modernise leather to make it a major income source, including better hide management and Eid-ul-Azha training. Remittances Stay Concentrated: Dhaka received nearly half of March remittances ($1.85bn), while Chattogram and Sylhet trailed. Food Pressure: Rice prices rose in Naogaon despite peak Boro harvesting, sparking calls for stricter monitoring. Policy Efficiency Check: Bangladesh Bank found efficiency gaps in about one-fifth of its units under service delivery timelines.

RMG Post-LDC Push: Commerce Minister Khandakar Abdul Muktadir says Bangladesh must protect garment competitiveness after LDC graduation, with New Zealand pledging continued duty-free access and both sides exploring a trade deal. Innovation for Textiles: Textile Innovation Exchange (TIE) was launched to make innovation “measurable and repeatable,” linking factories, universities and tech partners. Crime & Crackdown: CID busted an online gambling ring allegedly making nearly Tk 20mn daily, with money reportedly laundered abroad via hundi and crypto. Aviation Watch: Airbus submitted a fresh 10-aircraft offer to Biman as the airline evaluates expansion plans after signing a major Boeing deal. Water Security: Speakers demanded a UN-WB supervised regional commission to secure fair Ganges water sharing. Remittance Pulse: Bangladesh Bank data shows Dhaka received $1.85bn in March remittances—about half the national total. Tech & Fraud: OCR Studio upgraded AI-based KYC checks to spot generative-AI forged identity documents.

Geopolitics & Trade: The US and Bangladesh are moving ahead with defence and trade deals that would let American warships use Bangladeshi ports and airports for maintenance, refuelling and resupply—an upgrade that’s already raising concern in India. Mega Projects: ECNEC has finally approved the Tk 500bn Padma Barrage after decades of debate, but questions are back on the table over environmental risks and how much upstream water India will allow. Banking Shockwaves: 26 export garment owners are demanding a high-level probe into alleged Premier Bank Narayanganj fraud, including fake back-to-back LCs and loans created in their names. Industry Push: Commerce Minister Khandakar Abdul Muktadir urged textile firms to shift from low-value production to innovation, research and diversification, while Agrani Bank ran an IFRS 9 workshop to tighten credit-loss reporting. Markets: Gold prices fell again—22-carat down Tk 4,374 to Tk 238,121 per bhari—while Bangladesh Bank said it’s prioritising financial stability and inflation control.

Cumilla Push & AI Plans: PM Tarique Rahman backed a new Cumilla division and hinted at an agricultural university, while the government also plans AI and freelancing training centres at every upazila. Textile Upgrade: Commerce Minister urged RMG and textiles to shift to sustainable, innovative, high-value products to stay competitive post-LDC graduation. Banking & Cashless Drive: BRAC Bank arranged a Tk 5bn preference share facility for United Mymensingh Power and promoted cashless payments at Chuadanga’s cattle haat. Tax Crackdown: NBR says a tobacco-led tax evasion crackdown will start with counting tools, QR codes and revenue stamps. Public Health Alarm: Dengue risk is rising again, and experts warn Bangladesh may face another deadly season amid a measles strain. Finance Sector Shock: Premier Bank embezzlement claims are escalating as export firms demand a neutral probe. Tech & Telecom: BTRC will restart drives against illegal mobile handsets. Economy Mood: A report says Q1 2026 recovery remains fragile and uneven as inflation and weak investment bite.

RMG Labour Relief: The government has told factories to pay Eid-ul-Adha festival allowances by May 21, with phased Eid holidays to reduce travel congestion, after a Tripartite Consultative Council meeting focused on garment workers’ pending wages. Trade & Growth: Bangladesh’s exports hit a 5-month high, with April growth reported at 13.48%, while the wider trade picture remains sensitive to import costs. Energy Security: 14 oil ships have arrived at Chattogram so far in May, with five more expected to anchor within the month, as authorities push to keep fuel supply steady. Banking Expansion: Dhaka Bank opened its 118th branch at Gulshan Avenue, continuing its network build-out. Public Health: A 20-bed measles field ward is being set up at Dhaka Medical College Hospital, with operations pending instructions. Food Prices: Eggs and chicken prices stayed high in Dhaka markets, keeping household budgets under pressure. Diplomacy & UN: Brazil pledged support for Bangladesh’s UNGA presidency bid, boosting Dhaka’s push for Global South leadership.

BSEC Leadership Watch: Speculation is heating up over who will be named the next chairman of Bangladesh Securities and Exchange Commission, with Masud Khan (Unilever Consumer Care) emerging as the strongest candidate after the BSEC (Amendment) Bill 2026 removed the age cap. Trade & Macros: India’s exports jumped 13.59% to $80.80bn in April while imports rose 7.67%, narrowing the trade deficit to $7.81bn—useful context for Bangladesh’s export competitiveness and regional demand. Energy Diplomacy: Bangladesh signed a strategic energy cooperation MoU with the US to diversify supply and support LNG/LPG imports, capacity building and studies. Water Politics: Bangladesh approved a $2.8bn Padma river project aimed at tackling dry-season water stress—another chapter in the wider upstream-downstream debate. Security & Society: Police recommended acquittal in a “fabricated” murder case involving Sheikh Hasina and 83 others, while Bogura was upgraded to a city corporation. Sports: ICC docked Pakistan eight WTC points and fined them 40% of match fee for slow over-rate in the Dhaka Test.